In October, New Mexico experienced an average temperature of 60.8 degrees Fahrenheit — the highest for the month since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began keeping records in 1895. The high temperatures in the fall are expected to continue throughout the winter as well, according to a recent report from NOAA.
Throughout the United States, above-average winter temperatures will likely occur across the east coast, the Gulf of Mexico and the Southwest, according to the report.
Along with the warmer temperatures in these areas, NOAA predicts lower-than-average levels of precipitation over the next few months. Drought conditions are expected to persist in the southern part of New Mexico, according to the report.
The emergence of La Niña, a jet stream coming from the Pacific coast, is one of the main influences on New Mexico’s winter climate, according to NOAA.
David Gutzler, an earth and planetary sciences professor at the University of New Mexico, said there are two main factors when determining a winter forecast for the Southwest: surface conditions in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean, along with overall warming of the climate due to greenhouse gas emissions.
“When there's a La Niña, those winters tend to be dry and warm here in the southwestern part of North America,” Gutzler said.
The current through the Pacific Ocean pushes the colder and wetter winds north, leaving the southern half of North America with warmer temperatures and less precipitation, according to Gutzler.
Miguel Santistevan, a Taos farmer and climate activist, said he has experienced the impacts of the warmer weather.
“My river goes dry in July, sometimes June, and so that affects my irrigation,” Santistevan said.
Santistevan has had to adapt the crops he grows to fit in with a warmer and drier climate, he said.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, last year 20,900 farms operated in New Mexico, covering more than 60,000 square miles — more than 300 times the size of Albuquerque.
While the drought conditions are expected to continue this year, the changing climate might not disrupt the natural cycle of drought and water spells the Southwest experiences, Gutzler said.
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“There's not any good evidence that this sort of natural decadal variability is going to stop as a result of climate change,” Gutzler said.
Caution is important when it comes to absolution in climate predictions, Gutzler said. The tools that are used to make large-scale climate predictions are better suited to looking at large-scale trends rather than predicting year-to-year extrema, according to Gutzler.
“It's very difficult to predict a record-setting event,” Gutzler said.
Gutzler said there needs to be a focus on adaptation and conserving water supplies.
Santistevan offers webinars on adapting crops, harvesting water and more, he said.
“Our groundwater supplies are depleting,” Santistevan said. ”The methods I advocate for will put water back in the ground, and hopefully we can maintain our aquifers.”
Jaden Mckelvey-Francis is a freelance reporter for the Daily Lobo. He can be reached at news@dailylobo.com or on X @dailylobo
