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Forget “The Land of Enchantment,” a more exact state motto for New Mexico would be “The Land of Steady Voting Habits.”
According to polling data for the past 56 years, New Mexicans tend to vote for incumbents in presidential elections.
In the 14 elections since 1956, only twice have New Mexicans voted for a challenger instead of an incumbent. Those elections were in 1980, when the state went for Ronald Reagan instead of Jimmy Carter, and in 1992, when the state went for Bill Clinton instead of George H.W. Bush.
Incumbents also tend to have a double-digit margin of victory in New Mexico: Eisenhower won by 16 percentage points in 1956; Nixon by 24.5 in 1972 and Reagan by 20.5 in 1984.
Lyndon Johnson was not strictly an incumbent, since he ran for re-election in 1964 after finishing the remainder of John F. Kennedy’s term. He won New Mexico with an 18.9 percentage-point margin over Republican challenger Barry Goldwater in 1964.
But exceptions to the trend of large margins of victory for incumbents have occurred in recent elections. In the 1996 election, incumbent Bill Clinton received a 7.3 percentage-point margin over Republican challenger Bob Dole, and in the 2004 election, incumbent George W. Bush carried New Mexico with only a 0.8 percentage-point margin over Democratic challenger John Kerry.
However, after a two-term presidency of any party, New Mexicans are much less clear about whom they want to vote into office next.
After two terms of the Republican Eisenhower administration from 1952 to 1960, New Mexicans voted for Democrat John F. Kennedy, who won the national election in 1960. But Kennedy carried New Mexico by 50.2 percent of the votes to 49.4 percent for Republican Richard Nixon. And after two terms of Democrat Bill Clinton from 1992 to 2000, New Mexicans voted for Democrat Al Gore, who lost the presidential election to Republican George W. Bush. But Gore only carried the state by 0.1 percentage points — 366 votes.
New Mexico also tends to vote for the winning candidate, only voting for the losing candidate twice during 25 elections since its statehood a century ago. These occurred in 1976, when the state went for Gerald Ford, and in 2000, when the state went for Al Gore.
In addition, New Mexico’s partisan leanings in presidential elections are split, with the state siding with Democratic candidates in 13 elections and siding with Republican candidates in 12 elections.
But New Mexican voters may be breaking free of these established electoral patterns. The history of narrow margins in an election after a two-term presidency disappeared in 2008, when Democrat Barack Obama carried New Mexico with 15.1 percentage points more than Republican John McCain.
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Historical evidence suggests that Barack Obama will carry New Mexico in 2012, given New Mexico’s history of voting for incumbents. If that trend continues, though, Obama’s win may only be by the single percentage-point margin that has occurred in the two incumbent re-elections since Clinton.
