Trying to figure out the NFL is harder than predicting New Mexico weather.
Two weeks ago, I wrote a column proclaiming that the NFC had dethroned the AFC as the best conference in the NFL. It seemed the NFC East was clearly the best division in the entire league. But after the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys all lost to inferior opponents - and with the Philadelphia Eagles struggling at 3-3 - it is clear the NFL is as unpredictable now as it has ever been. While I still believe the NFC is stronger as a whole, the AFC's elite teams look better every week, and an AFC representative could very well become Super Bowl champion in February. Here is a division-by-division breakdown of the conference.
AFC East
Tom Brady's season-ending injury was a major event that helped shift the balance from the AFC to the NFC. However, while the Patriots have struggled without their MVP, other East teams have risen.
Buffalo Bills (4-1) - Brady's injury put the East up for grabs, and Buffalo took the opportunity and ran with it. Marshawn Lynch has led a power run game, and the offense will continue to progress as long as quarterback Trent Edwards can stay healthy. The defense looked solid through the 4-0 start but then was embarrassed by Kurt Warner and Co. in a 41-17 loss to the Cardinals in Week 5. You would guess the Bills spent their bye week trying to regroup on the defensive side.
New England Patriots (3-2) - Hopeful Patriots fans claimed that the defense and running game would carry New England to the playoffs after the loss of Brady. However, the defense has looked old, and the running game has been nonexistent. Bill Belichick has been labeled a genius after winning three Super Bowls this decade, but his toughest coaching job may be finding a way to turn New England into a playoff-caliber team with quarterback Matt Cassel at the helm.
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New York Jets (3-2) - Brett Favre continues to play well in his 37th season and will continue to adjust to New York's extensive playbook. He has legitimate deep threats in Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, and his six-touchdown performance against Arizona in Week 4 is evidence he has chemistry with his receivers. Thomas Jones is on and off, but he clearly has more running room this season with a passing attack to help him out. The Jets do have the worst defense in the East, so the offense will have to continue scoring.
Miami Dolphins (2-3) - The Dolphins went from being the butt of many jokes last season to one of the more entertaining teams to watch this season. They have implemented a "Wildcat" formation, in which Ronnie Brown takes the snap and has the option to run or pass. The play is fun to watch develop and has confused defenses thus far. However, defensive coordinators around the league will eventually find a solution, and the Dolphins haven't improved enough to make a playoff push.
AFC West
Denver Broncos (4-2) - Through the first four games, Denver had one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and Jay Cutler was an MVP candidate due to the 3-0 start. However, the defense has been mightily exposed in the last few games, and it is clear that if the offense doesn't have a huge game, the Broncos will struggle to win. Michael Pittman had a nice game against Jacksonville, but Denver still needs to find more consistency in the running game.
San Diego Chargers (3-3) - San Diego was a trendy Super Bowl pick in the preseason but suffered some tough last-minute losses to start the season. The Chargers showed flashes of being an elite team with the 30-10 drubbing of New England on Sunday, but LaDainian Tomlinson is not 100 percent, and the defense is also battling injuries. Still, when this team is at its best, it can hang with anyone.
Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) - Their Week 4 explosion on offense was more an indication of Denver's awful defense than it was of Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs have the second-lowest scoring offense in the league behind only the St. Louis Rams. Their defense - specifically against the run - is also horrid, so five wins would be an accomplishment for the Chiefs this season.
Oakland Raiders (1-4) - Al Davis' bizarre news conference after firing head coach Lane Kiffin is going to be the highlight of the Raiders' season. The team was supposed to have promise after trading for cornerback DeAngelo Hall and drafting Darren McFadden, but both players have been disappointing thus far. The Raiders do play Kansas City twice this season, so they have that going for them.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) - The offensive line and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger were beat up by the Eagles in a Week 3 loss, but the Steelers have resembled an elite team other than that. They are coming off a bye week, enabling Willie Parker and others to get healthy, which is dangerous for the rest of the AFC. They have a two-game lead and a tiebreaker over Baltimore, so Pittsburgh has some cushion in its quest to win the North.
Baltimore Ravens (2-3) - Baltimore played well against Pittsburgh in its Week 4 overtime loss, but that loss seems to have derailed the team. The defense came out looking like one of the most stout in the league but then was manhandled by a struggling Colts offense on Sunday. Rookie quarterback Joe Flacco is going to have his growing pains, so the defense will have to play well week in and week out if they are to contend.
Cleveland Browns (2-3) - Cleveland just missed the playoffs last season and was supposed to be one of the better teams in the league this season. However, they stumbled mightily coming out of the gate, with the offense playing inexplicably awful. There was talk of benching quarterback Derek Anderson for Brady Quinn, but Anderson had by far his best game of the season by throttling the then-undefeated Giants on Monday night. It's tough to say if the game was a fluke, but the performance does give Cleveland some hope.
Cincinnati Bengals (0-6) - If the Browns' start on offense was a disappointment, then the Bengals' has been a disaster. No one expected much out of Cincinnati's defense, but the offense has skilled players. However, Carson Palmer has been terrible and can't stay healthy. There is absolutely no running game, Chad Johnson hasn't done much of anything and T.J. Houshmandzadeh has been the only bright spot on the team.
AFC South
Tennessee Titans (5-0) - If there is any question that parity reigns in the NFL, then the fact that a Kerry Collins-led squad is the only undefeated team left should reaffirm that thought. The defense has been outstanding, but can Tennessee truly be the best team in the league? I love rookie running back Chris Johnson as much as anyone, but most rookies hit a wall at some point and back up. LenDale White is more concerned with finding his next all-you-can-eat buffet than he is with getting into football shape. The Titans' Week 8 matchup with the Colts will show just how talented Tennessee really is.
Indianapolis Colts (3-2) - So much for Peyton Manning and the offense underperforming. The Colts dismantled a powerful Ravens defense, and Marvin Harrison looked like his old self. Joseph Addai's injury has to be a concern, but Manning showed he is still capable of putting the team on his back and carrying them to the playoffs.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) - Jacksonville has been decimated by injuries, especially on defense. The Jags went from having one of the stingiest run defenses in the league to one of the most generous. They can still pound the ball on offense with Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, and David Garrard has been impressive. As long as Matt Jones' fondness for cocaine isn't contagious to the other wide receivers, the offense has enough balance to compete.
Houston Texans (1-4) - The Texans had the misfortune of spending the first month on the road due to Hurricane Ike but now get to play the next three at home after earning their first win against Miami on Sunday. The young team isn't ready to make a playoff run yet but should be a dangerous team to play down the stretch.
