by Caleb Fort
Daily Lobo
A conference in the SUB cast an optimistic light on the economic future of the United States and New Mexico.
More than 400 people attended the 2006 Annual Economic Outlook Conference on Thursday.
Larry Waldman, a UNM professor who spoke about New Mexico's economy, said the state's economic outlook for the next one or two years is promising. However, New Mexicans will have to overcome some hurdles to achieve a good economy, he said.
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"The outlook is pretty decent," he said. "But it's not spectacular."
Waldman said in order for New Mexico's economy to thrive, the state needs more manufacturing jobs.
"We've got a lot of strengths - and the major strength, friends, is manufacturing," he said. "Not just Intel."
Waldman said several factories, including Eclipse Aviation and Tempur-Pedic, will help the state's economy by adding jobs.
Eclipse Aviation will add about 500 jobs this year, while Tempur-Pedic will add about 300, he said.
Waldman also discussed the impact of high oil and gas prices on New Mexico's economy.
"As oil prices began to rise, suddenly it's more profitable to find new sources of oil," he said. "So when oil prices rise, we see lots of new jobs."
The economic conference was the first one since the early 1990s, said Karen Wentworth, a UNM spokeswoman.
Nariman Behravesh, the chief economist for economic-forecasting company Global Insight, spoke about the national and global economy.
He agreed with Waldman's ideas about high oil prices.
"In this state for most of us, oil is not a risk," he said. "It's an opportunity."
High oil prices are not a cause for major concern because they are not caused by a lack of supply, he said.
"This is a demand-driven increase in oil prices. This is not a supply shock that has brought us here," he said. "Oil prices have tripled in the last three years almost entirely because global demand - especially in the U.S. and China - has been extremely strong."
His company predicts oil prices will drop over the next couple of years, but will not get as low as they were in 1999 and 2000, he said.
Behravesh also discussed the possible economic impact of an avian flu epidemic.
An epidemic hurts the supply side of the economy by stopping people from working and possibly slowing imports and exports, he said. However, most harm to the economy would come from consumers afraid to eat at restaurants, go to concerts or travel, he said.
"Basically the question is, 'How will people react?'" he said. "And if they panic, the demand side effects will be huge."
Doug Welter, a local businessman who attended the conference, said it was helpful to him.
"It's nice to get a kind of a synopsis. I like the way they broke it down," he said. "You get a national, a global, and then they kind of step it down for the New Mexico outlook. It's very useful."
Behravesh's presentation was the most useful, he said.
"You can go on Google and read all about this stuff, but having someone talk about it whose whole job is to think about these things is really helpful," Welter said.
Kelly Matthews, an economist for Wells Fargo, also spoke at the event.
