by Craig A. Butler
Daily Lobo Columnist
The international community has joined behind a new U.N. resolution that will force Iraq to open itself to weapons inspections or face the consequences.
Many who hope to see democratic reforms in Iraq and other Arab nations are concerned that a U.S.-led attack might actually set back reforms as Arab leaders strive to resist Western influence.
It seems as though war with Iraq is almost inevitable. Few cling to the belief that Saddam has been honest about his weapons programs. It is almost certain that Iraq is hiding many caches of chemical and biological weapons. How far an Iraqi nuclear weapons program has progressed is uncertain, but the possibility of finding fissionable material is not out of the question.
Now Saddam is scrambling to hide the evidence, even as the U.N. deadline draws near. Iraq's parliament, a puppet of Saddam's regime, has condemned the UN resolution. Saddam will try to buy time, as he has in the past, possibly even offering some old chemical weapons for 'discovery' by inspectors in the hope that he can convince the rest of the world that he is complying.
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In the end, however, it will be impossible for him to hide his weapons if inspectors get the chance to search Iraq. Once the war begins, there will be little Iraq can do from stopping an international, U.S.-led force from toppling Saddam's regime. The big question for a lot of people is not whether there will be a war, but what will happen next.
Even before Saddam's time, Iraq had a reputation for being a violent nation, both internally and against its neighbors. Following the assassination of Iraq's last king in 1958, the country suffered a series of one dictator after another until Saddam seized control in 1979. Although many groups opposed him in the beginning, they are now scattered and ineffective. There is little hope they could be brought together to form a new government for the nation.
Another difficulty is that Iraqi Shiites outnumber Sunni Muslims, which means that a democratic government there might be seen by neighboring Sunni-ruled nations as a threat. The religious differences would certainly cause difficulties in the division of revenues from Iraqi's enormous oil reserves.
Iraq's oil reserves are the second largest in the world, after Saudi Arabia's. If used peacefully, the money from Iraq's oil export could be used to rebuild the country. Foreign capital will be less important to Iraq's future than it is to Afghanistan's, since Iraq already has a strong basis for its economy.
Another optimistic point is that a relatively large portion of Iraq's population (60 percent) is literate. Women in Iraq hold more status in Iraq's secular society than they do in many other Muslim nations. This may help create an informed and diverse voting public in a future Iraqi democracy.
The greatest threat to Iraq's future may be too much interference from foreign military forces. Some of the plans for invasion call for a U.S. military governor to control Iraq until a stable government can be constructed. But so much American influence may undermine a new government's authority among Muslims both in and around Iraq.
After removing Saddam's regime and disposing of whatever weapons of mass destruction he might have accumulated, we must keep in mind that true change for Iraq will have to come from within. No government we can realistically impose will meet with acceptance by the Iraqis.
At the same time, we can't simply leave a chaotic vacuum in the wake of Saddam's defeat. The Bush administration has promised to make a commitment to Iraq after the war, but how long will that commitment last? If a Democratic president gains the White House in 2004, will we abandon that promise?
Though war seems certain at this point, it is the reconstruction afterward that will have the most lasting impact on the Iraqi people and the region as a whole. Before setting out on this attack, the United States should develop a reasonable plan for helping rebuild Iraq without seeming to conquer it.
