Oscar Predictions

Much speculation has already occurred as to who will hoist the coveted gold statue come March with the announcements of the Academy Award nominees Tuesday.

While some of the actors and pictures were givens for nominations, such as "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," which received 10 nominations, other pictures, such as "Chocolat" with five nominations, were somewhat surprises.

Here is the list of nominees for the major categories, as well as some thoughts and predictions.

Best Supporting Actor

Jeff Bridges, "The Contender"

Albert Finney, "Erin Brockovich"

Joaquin Phoenix, "Gladiator"

Willem Dafoe, "Shadow of a Vampire"

Benicio Del Toro, "Traffic"

This field is very close with powerful and vivid performances by both Del Toro as a Mexican police officer fighting corruption within his own government and Defoe as Max Schreck, a real life vampire playing the original "Nosferatu," making it a race almost too close to call. My money is on Del Toro.

Best Supporting Actress

Judi Dench, "Chocolat"

Marcia Gay Harden, "Pollock"

Frances McDormand, "Almost Famous"

Kate Hudson, "Almost Famous"

Julie Walters, "Billy Elliot"

Again, another close call with McDormand playing an anxious and concerned mother whose 15-year-old son is touring with rock stars as a journalist for "Rolling Stone," while Harden's emotional flexibility as Jackson Pollock's wife and artistic contemporary is sheer brilliance. Odds are Harden by a hair.

Best Actress

Joan Allen, "The Contender"

Juliette Binoche, "Chocolate"

Ellen Burstyn, "Requiem For a Dream"

Laura Linney, "You Can Count on Me"

Julia Roberts, "Erin Brockovich"

Burstyn, with the possible exception of Linney, blows away the competition as a Brooklyn mother addicted to diet pills who plummets into an irrevocable personal hell. This was one of her most audacious works, and she should reap the benefits of her talent. However, members of the Academy have been suckers for feel-good movies in the past, and as a result, Roberts probably will steal the award from Burstyn with true cheese fashion. Roberts' role as Erin Brockovich, a down-and-out woman who is given a job at a law firm and eventually discovers a cover-up involving contaminated water in a local community, was blown out of proportion by audiences who appreciate her popcorn appeal.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, "Before Night Falls"

Russell Crowe, "Gladiator"

Tom Hanks, "Cast Away"

Ed Harris, "Pollock"

Geoffrey Rush, "Quills"

Delivering the most profound and visceral performance of the bunch is, without a doubt, Harris in his absorbing portrayal of painter Jackson Pollock. He is tortured and complex and delivers true angst on the screen without a trace of superfluous glamorization. But Russell Crowe, in the highly overrated "Gladiator," could rob Harris of his just due, and walk away with the Oscar.

Best Director

Stephen Daldry, "Billy Elliot"

Ang Lee, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"

Steven Soderbergh, "Erin Brockovich"

Ridley Scott, "Gladiator"

Steven Soderbergh, "Traffic"

Excruciatingly close is the best way to describe the chances of both Lee and Soderbergh. However, while Soderbergh is nominated twice, the first time in 63 years, it is his work in "Traffic" that deserves the utmost attention and praise, while the buzz over "Erin Brockovich" never stirred until "Traffic's" release. Lee, on the other hand, does a sublime job of calculating and balancing grace and exhilaration in a marvelous picture. This race is too close to call.

Best Original Screenplay

Cameron Crowe, "Almost Famous"

Lee Hall, "Billy Elliot"

Susannah Grant, "Erin Brockovich"

David Franzoni, John Logan, and William Nicholson, "Gladiator"

Kenneth Lonergan, "You Can Count on Me"

With the possible exception of Lonergan's graceful and subtle script of human relations at its simplest, Crowe should sweep the competition with his witty, poignant and funny love letter to classic rock and adolescence in his semi-autobiographical tale as a teen-age rock journalist. It's Crowe all the way.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Robert Nelson Jacobs, "Chocolat"

Wang Hui Ling, James Schamus, and Tsai Kuo Jung, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"

Joel and Ethan Coen, "O Brother, Where Art Thou?"

Stephen Gaghan, "Traffic"

Steve Kloves, "Wonder Boys"

Although Gaghan won a Golden Globe for his adaptation of the BBC mini-series, "Traffik," it looks like he has some stiff competition against Kloves' adaptation of Michael Chabon's novel. Kloves' writing gives "Wonder Boys" all of Chabon's original intelligence and charm and makes it disappointing that the movie wasn't recognized in more categories. And the winner is . Kloves.

Best Picture

"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"

"Gladiator"

"Chocolat"

"Erin Brockovich"

"Traffic"

While all of the nominees have their own charm, the two movies that are highly overrated are "Gladiator" and "Erin Brockovich." Sure, they make us feel good and have lots of Roman Coliseum action, they just fall short of the quality of "Traffic" and "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" - both of which are rubbing elbows with their brilliance. In the end, it looks like "Traffic" will take the top prize, while "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" will most likely take the Best Foreign Language Film category.